The decline of manufacturing has left many older workers unable to find new jobs. New home sales are hovering aroundper monthcompared to 1. Consumer confidence is a sketchy number at best. The numbers could be as bogus as Sarah Palin, but to play the game, and play it well, you gotta play by the rules of the policy makers.
The more there is of it, the greater the boom left behind, and the greater the trouble that lies ahead. It also indicates the combined values of inventories in the wholesale and retail business sectors, and manufacturing.
But the terrible economy is also keeping some people at home. Paying attention to shopping and eating habits of the American people might seem like a pretty dumb way to watch the market, but the junk people buy and the food they eat actually makes up about two-thirds of the annual U.
Their apparent financial success combined with the success of the Fed, had made them confident to the point of recklessness… in the economy, the absence of qualms or question marks was unsettling. Manufacturing Trade Inventories and Sales This data combines the value of trade sales and shipments by manufacturers in a specific month.
Due to the limited scope of services surveying, those costs are heavily understated and artificially depress inflation reported for the broad finished goods index. Gene Marks at Philly Mag writes: And why does that matter?
People can give three opinions; positive, negative, and neutral.
Viewed in terms of year-to-year change, or the annual rate of inflation, though, the series begins to show a strong leading correlation to the CPI.
This one may seem like an outlier, but the data provided here is the main source of information on the current status of business inventories and business sales. Labor force participation rates for younger workers, ages 16 to 54, has been dropping sharply for a number of reasons — some good, some terrible.
Younger people are more likely to stay in school than they used to. The BLS releases the data on a monthly basis, usually on the first Friday following the month in which data was collected, but always with the first 10 days after month-end.
In other words, this figure indicates the demand for newly built homes. The problem with consumers was not that they lacked confidence, but that they had too much. Vehicle sales tend to be pretty volatile and can throw off an underlying pattern of spending, so the figures are broken down to include and exclude automobile sales.
I spoke with Rick Rule about this, too. Instead of smoothed monthly changes, however, the resulting adjusted data tend to show a high level of random volatility in terms of month-to-month change.
If sales are slowing, businesses may be forced to cut production of goods, and that can eventually translate into inventory reductions. If you watch crude prices —the first in the chain of production trends— investors can sometimes spot inflation in the pipeline, before it shows up in the Consumer Price Index.
Paying attention to these numbers can signal whether or not consumers are more inclined to spend or save their money, based on their sentiments about financial and employment prospects.
And anyone who has ever hustled for a paycheck knows thatpart-time jobs andfull-time jobs are not the same thing. The Washington Post explains: When it comes to the stock market, you need to keep a few things in perspective.
It seems like a no-brainer that disappointment can lead to disinvestment, and that consumers are more likely to spend money when they feel confident about their financial futures.
Because unfortunately, dear readers, the sick irony of it all is that the policy makers care about PPI, and it influences their decisions.
They do not have the same impact on the economy. This index is important because it is the very first inflation measure available every month. Suddenly sounds pretty unreliable, right?
People are jumping for joy since construction industries are slowly recovering, but seemingly fantastic housing starts numbers are something else entirely.
Employment Current Employment Statistics, or CES, provide data on national employment, unemployment, and wages and earnings across all non-agricultural industries, including civilian government workers.
For example, it is rare to find a PPI measure of insurance costs that represents more than 20 percent of the inflation rate seen in actual policy costs. People who were near retirement saw their savings evaporate after the financial crisis, so some of them are now working longer to repair the damage.
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